The hottest market in the United States was closed

2022-08-14
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The U.S. market was closed on Independence Day on Monday, and the market was quiet.

trend description on July 4 (Monday):

as the manufacturing data of China and the euro zone did not perform as expected, the market's concerns about the global economic situation rekindled, and the international oil price fell slightly. As of 16:00 today, US crude oil closed at 95.1 US dollars in a row, while US $9 was used to replace oil with soybean oil to make tires. On July 4, due to the closure of WTI during the American Independence Day holiday, the price of crude oil futures market in New York closed slightly lower on Monday. The market trading was light, and the largest silver carp was more than half a meter long

positive factors of Fundamentals:

1 The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60million barrels of crude oil stocks, which once depressed oil prices, but the momentum has weakened. Some analysts believe that the role of this decision of the International Energy Agency has begun to be digested by the market

fundamentals negative factors:

1. China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.9 in June from 52 in May, close to the watershed of expansion and contraction of 50

2. The manufacturing PMI in the euro zone fell to an 18 month low of 52.0 in June from 54.6 in May

3. However, according to the data released by the United States, the PMI of the Institute of supply management manufacturing industry rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 in May, and the market is expected to be 51.8. This means that the global economic outlook is still uncertain, so the oil price has recovered some lost ground. The 4th market will be closed for us independence day

technical analysis:

the background of the development of crude oil Monday gold testing machine fluctuates in a narrow range. The daily chart shows a small negative line of the entity, and the overall technical form has not changed significantly. Maintain the previous view, pay attention to the resistance near 96 above, and if it stands effectively, it will regain the upward trend. Below 96, it still holds the view of concussion and empty. In the day, the lower support is 93/89.6, and the upper resistance is 96/100. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. Radical people can consider short selling in light positions, with a stop loss of 96 and a target of 93

Outlook:

Standard Bank of South Africa: given that the U.S. market is closed today, we expect the crude oil market to be very light. The market seems to have recovered from the release of inventory by the IEA, and the focus this week may turn to the health of the US economy. Given that the United States will release a series of important economic data this week, such as factory orders, ISM non manufacturing data and the most important non farm employment data, if these data confirm that the previous slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery is only temporary, we expect to see oil prices regain some of their operational capacity

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